Trade Desk Beats Q3 Estimates as Revenue Dips 0.5%, Adds $731 Million to Buyback

TTD reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $736 million, down 0.5% from $739 million a year earlier and its first year-over-year decline since its 2016 listing, but comfortably above the Zacks consensus of $651 million. Adjusted earnings came in at 33 cents per share against a 26-cent estimate, though that was down 26.7% from $0.45 a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA fell 16.1% to $266 million and the adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed to 36% from about 43%, as operating expenses rose 11.3% and the quarter absorbed roughly $44 million of restructuring charges tied to a cut of about 15% of the global workforce.

Zacks attributed the beat to medical health, personal finance, travel and political advertising, with midterm-election spending lifting the political vertical, while audio, about 7% of the business, grew faster than any other channel. Analysts were less convinced about the quality of that mix. MoffettNathanson said the company's revenue mix "leaves a lot to be desired" while still raising its target to $8 from $6, UBS noted the quarter benefited from one-time items and political spending, and Citi said the turnaround is still early. Several firms lifted price targets anyway, including UBS to $19 from $15 and Susquehanna to $17 from $14, leaving the average target at $13.53 with most of the 36 analysts covering the stock at Hold.

Management guided fourth-quarter revenue to at least $755 million and adjusted EBITDA to at least $280 million, a guide that still does not return the company to year-over-year growth. The board added $731 million to the repurchase program, bringing total capacity to $1 billion. The stock closed up 3.28% at $15.42 on November 10 on volume of 64.2 million shares, about 189% above its three-month average, after a sharp rally the previous session, even as the S&P 500 fell 0.38%. Shares remain down more than 60% year to date, so the next test is whether the Q4 guide and the 2027 cost savings translate into a return to top-line growth.