30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2002, 10-Year Near 5.25% as Stocks Slip

Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields hit fresh multi-decade highs on Tuesday, Sept 29. The 30-year yield rose as high as 5.621% intraday, its highest since 2002, and the benchmark 10-year touched 5.293% before closing near 5.25%, a level last seen in 2007. Stocks slipped modestly: the Dow fell 0.26% to 51,349.92, the S&P 500 0.17% to 7,670.84 and the Nasdaq 0.09% to 26,797.54.

The yield move came even as oil fell. November WTI settled 3.48% lower at $89.38, its lowest since Aug. 31, and Brent fell 2.56% to $102.59. Weak data played a part in the day's tone: the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 81.9, the lowest since April 2014, and August job openings dropped to 7.079 million against 7.225 million expected. New York Fed President John Williams said there was "no need for urgency" on further hikes, and futures-implied odds of an October rate increase fell to 51.5% from 70.9% on Monday. Gold rebounded about 1.4% after a steep drop the day before. Beneath the flat indexes, AI and optical names rallied: META rose 3.24%, ORCL 6.08% and LITE 5.66%.

Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote that "the clearest path to equity upside from here remains rates relief", noting that homebuilders, gold miners, real estate, utilities and the Russell 2000 had suffered the largest declines as rates rose. Goldman stayed modestly positive on equities over 12 months. What to watch: Wednesday's PCE inflation data, whether the 10-year holds above 5.25%, and whether narrow, AI-led leadership can keep the indexes afloat if long yields keep climbing.