Trump Says US Is 'Low Keying It' With Iran as Oil Sheds 7% on the Week

President Trump told Axios on Sunday that the United States is "low keying it" with Iran, describing a posture built on economic pressure rather than further military action . He said Washington is "only semi-negotiating with them" and is "just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money," adding that Tehran is in bad enough shape to struggle to pay its own forces .

The remarks land at a specific point in a conflict that has run most of the year. Major US and Israeli strikes began on February 28, a memorandum of understanding ending the main phase was signed in June, and Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued afterward, peaking in early July when three vessels were hit over July 6 and 7. As of this weekend the Strait is disrupted rather than reopened: Iran-Oman talks are underway, and Tehran has circulated a restrictive draft transit plan that would bar vessels linked to the United States and Israel and penalise what it calls harmful nations .

Crude is where the shift is being priced. Brent settled at $83.55 and West Texas Intermediate at $78.18 on Friday, August 7, both down more than 7% on the week, after trading as high as $89 and $86 respectively earlier in the month on Hormuz disruption risk . That is a de-escalation trade running ahead of any signed arrangement, which leaves the risk premium available to return as quickly as it left.

The sanctions machinery has tightened even as the rhetoric softened, and that is the mechanism behind the economic pain Trump described. OFAC revoked Iran General License X on July 7, replacing it with a wind-down authorisation that expired on July 17, then issued further Iran-related designations on July 14 and July 29 and counter-terrorism designations touching Iran on August 7 . Treasury has also run a disruption action against what it described as a Strait of Hormuz extortion network .

For markets the asymmetry is worth naming. A confirmed reopening of the Strait would take further risk premium out of crude and could pressure energy producers such as XOM and CVX that have benefited from the war premium, while easing an input cost for refiners, airlines and freight. A breakdown in the Oman talks does the reverse, and does it faster. Watch tanker transit counts and Gulf war-risk insurance quotes rather than the diplomatic headlines: those price the reopening before any communique confirms it.