Trump claims historic US stake in Venezuela's oil, promises lower fuel prices

Donald Trump announced that the United States has secured a massive share of Venezuela's oil reserves—about 65 billion barrels—and said the deal will lower gasoline prices and revive the economy. Major news outlets reported the claim, while analysts highlighted the lack of concrete details and potential market repercussions. The announcement arrives as fuel costs remain a hot political issue.

President Donald Trump announced a deal under which the United States would control more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven oil reserves, writing that the agreement would more than double American oil reserves and "substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans". Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who reached the agreement alongside Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, called it "a huge win for both the American and Venezuelan people". Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodríguez said the deal would have "a significant impact on our nation's revival".

The structure, as far as it has been described, is a joint venture in which the U.S. government retains 55% control alongside an experienced private operator, under a 100-year concession covering 17 strategic oil fields. Rodríguez put the associated commitments at more than $100 billion of investment and more than $209 billion in taxes for Venezuela. Trump said the arrangement came "at no cost to the American Taxpayer" but did not describe the partnership or its terms, and the official text of the agreement has not been published.

Analysts who spoke to reporters were markedly more cautious than the announcement. David Goldwyn of Goldwyn Global Strategies said there is "no precedent" for the U.S. government entering a lease to operate Venezuelan oil fields, questioned whether it would conflict with Venezuela's constitution or hydrocarbons law, and added that "it is hard to see how this kind of arrangement would accelerate investment at any material scale" given political uncertainty, a weak power grid and limited export capacity. Rachel Ziemba of the Center for New American Security said the deal is "unlikely to have any material impact on global oil supplies in the next month or even the next year".

Two structural facts sit underneath the headline number. Venezuela does hold the world's largest proven reserves at an estimated 303 billion barrels, but output has fallen sharply from its late-1990s peak under state control and U.S. sanctions. And the barrels in question are heavy, sour crude, better suited to diesel and asphalt than to the gasoline the announcement promises to make cheaper, whereas U.S. production is light and sweet. The near-term market question is therefore about refining and infrastructure rather than reserves. Reporting that Chevron and Halliburton are nearing deals to invest in overhauling Venezuelan fields is the thread to follow, along with whether any executed contract is published and whether it survives legal challenge in Caracas.