Trump Says New Iran Attack Highly Unlikely if Nuclear Talks Progress

President Donald Trump said ordering renewed strikes on Iran is "highly unlikely" as long as talks to constrain Iran's nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz make progress, CNBC reported from a television interview. "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," Trump said, while stressing that three U.S. aircraft carriers in the region are "fully locked and loaded".

Oil prices eased on the comments despite fresh reports that shipping had been hit. Brent fell 0.75% to $97.57 a barrel and U.S. crude slipped 0.4% to $90.45, according to Reuters.

The signal from Washington is not uniform. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the talks have not been very productive and called Iran's demands "not just unacceptable, but in some cases, outrageous and ridiculous," according to the Times of Israel. The same weekend, U.S. Central Command set up Task Force Iron Gate to choke Iran's overland weapons trade, so diplomatic restraint is running alongside tighter economic and military pressure.

What to watch: concrete progress or breakdown in the nuclear talks, any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and further shipping incidents, all of which feed directly into the oil risk premium.