TSMC Heads Into Oct. 15 Earnings With Q3 Revenue Beat Already Known; Margins and Guidance in Focus

TSM reports third-quarter results before the U.S. open on Thursday, Oct. 15. Much of the top line is already public: monthly sales releases put Q3 revenue at a record NT$1.49 trillion, about US$46.7 billion, up 50% from a year earlier. That is above the US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion range TSMC guided in July and the LSEG consensus of NT$1.46 trillion, Reuters reported. September revenue alone was NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% year over year, according to TSMC.

That shifts attention to profitability and the outlook. LSEG analysts expect net profit to rise 64% to NT$740.8 billion, and the SentiSense earnings calendar shows a consensus estimate of $4.45 per share for the U.S.-listed stock. TSMC guided third-quarter gross margin to 65% to 67%, against 67.7% in the second quarter, and TipRanks flags dilution of roughly 3 to 4 percentage points from the 2nm ramp as the main item to watch.

The AI mix is the other thread. High-performance computing, which includes AI accelerators, made up 66% of revenue in the second quarter, and 3nm reached 30% of wafer revenue, up from 25%, The Motley Fool notes. TSMC has raised its full-year growth outlook several times this year, most recently to at least 40%, and lifted 2026 capital spending plans to $60 billion to $64 billion.

Expectations are high. The average analyst price target is $555.01 across 20 analysts, against a Friday close of $453.31, per SentiSense consensus data. With the revenue beat known since Oct. 8, the stock's reaction is likely to hinge on fourth-quarter guidance, margin commentary on 2nm and any change to the full-year growth target.