S&P 500 Closes at a Record as Soft PPI and Falling Oil Reinforce the Disinflation Trade

US equities closed at record highs on August 13, with the S&P 500 up 0.65% to 7,798.99 and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.81% to 26,803.03 . It was the S&P's 27th record close of 2026.

The trigger was producer price data. July PPI for final demand came in unchanged at 0.0% against a forecast of plus 0.2% , following July CPI released the previous day at plus 0.1% month over month and plus 3.4% year over year, with core at plus 0.2% and plus 2.5% . Both headline and core CPI ticked down 0.1 point from June. Two consecutive cooler-than-expected inflation prints is what moved the rate-path probabilities, and equities followed.

Energy did the rest of the work. WTI fell 2.4% to $81.25 and Brent fell 2% to $87.07 on August 13 , breaking a six-session rally driven by Strait of Hormuz supply fears. Falling crude feeds directly into the goods-disinflation channel the PPI print measures, so the two catalysts reinforced each other rather than merely coinciding.

The fragility in that setup is that both legs are ultimately the same trade. Brent at $87 is still elevated against pre-crisis levels, and the pullback rested on a specific US government claim about Hormuz export volumes that independent estimates dispute. What to watch is whether the next CPI print confirms the trend and whether crude holds below $90, since a renewed energy spike would unwind the disinflation case this record is capitalizing.

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