UBS lifts S&P 500 year‑end target to 8,100 while analysts tweak stock forecasts

UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,100 and its mid-2027 forecast to 8,400, implying roughly 6% upside from Thursday's close of 7,641.16. The firm lifted its S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimates to $350 for 2026 and $400 for 2027, up from $335 and $375, and maintained an "attractive" view on U.S. equities.

The rationale is explicitly earnings-driven rather than multiple-driven, which matters for how much confidence to place in it. UBS cited three pillars it considers firmly in place: resilient economic growth, supportive monetary policy and AI adoption, with semiconductors singled out as the earnings engine. A target built on an EPS revision is falsifiable in a way that one built on multiple expansion is not, and the $350 and $400 figures are the numbers to check against actual reported results.

The target now sits second-highest on the street, behind only Oppenheimer's 8,150, per CNBC's strategist survey. That positioning is itself information: the bullish end of the sell side has converged in a narrow band around 8,100, which leaves relatively little dispersion for a market where AI capex assumptions vary enormously across houses.

Separately, Robert W. Baird moved several single names the same week, raising ROST to $270 with an upgrade to Outperform on tariff refunds and strong sales, lifting NDSN to $351 at Neutral and ADSK to $325 at Outperform, and reaffirming Neutral on TER at $420 . UBS also raised its UK earnings growth forecast and nudged its own Ross Stores target higher. Watch whether third-quarter earnings validate the $350 EPS path, since the entire 8,100 target rests on it.

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