September Jobs Report and August PCE Headline a Packed Economic Week as Fed Hike Risk Lingers

A heavy U.S. data calendar arrives this week, with jobs figures in focus as another Federal Reserve rate hike looks possible. Reuters reports the Fed raised rates by a quarter point on September 16 and signaled another increase before year end, so the jobs and inflation releases are being read for whether a follow-up hike comes as soon as October.

The schedule, as listed in a KobeissiLetter post: September consumer confidence and August JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, September 29; August PCE inflation and the Q2 GDP report on Wednesday, September 30; September ISM manufacturing on Thursday, October 1; and the September jobs report on Friday, October 2. The same post counts a total of 22 Fed speaker events during the week . The GDP release is the third estimate of the second quarter.

Friday's payrolls report is the main event. Reuters reports consensus near 100,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate forecast at 4.2%. The last core PCE reading, for July, rose 3.3% over twelve months, well above the Fed's 2% target, and the 30-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level in over 20 years. One strategist quoted by Reuters said markets would welcome a good but not great payrolls number, while an exceedingly hot one could trigger a short-term selloff by cementing the case for an October hike. No consensus figures were available for PCE, JOLTS, ISM, confidence, or GDP.

What to watch: whether August core PCE moves off the July pace, whether payrolls land near consensus, and how the week's Fed speakers frame October.