U.S. September retail sales rise 0.8% to $745 billion, topping forecasts on gasoline

U.S. retail and food service sales rose 0.8% in September to a seasonally adjusted $745.0 billion, the Census Bureau reported on October 15. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3% gain, and a Wall Street Journal survey had 0.4%, so the headline beat by roughly half a point. Sales were up 6.3% from September 2025. Figures are nominal and not adjusted for prices.

The Census release also revised August upward: the change from July to August is now 1.3%, up from 1.1% in the prior estimate. Some summaries of the release, including a post circulating on social media, describe the 1.3% as a July figure, but the Census table attaches it to August, which now stands at $739.3 billion.

The headline looks stronger than the underlying detail. Reuters reported that gasoline prices rose 7.1% in September and accounted for most of the increase in sales. Excluding gasoline stations, sales rose 0.2%, compared with 1.0% in August. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.9% against a 0.5% forecast. The measure closest to what feeds GDP consumer spending, which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, edged up 0.1% after a 1.2% jump in August, below the 0.3% economists expected.

What to watch: the October report is due November 17. If gasoline prices ease, the headline could cool even if spending in other categories holds. Investors may also look at whether the core measure rebounds from its September miss, and at how Census revises September itself, since the advance estimate carries a margin of error of 0.4 percentage points.