Vistra Corp Posts Record Q3 Adjusted EBITDA Over $2 Billion and Revenue Below Forecasts

VST reported record third-quarter 2026 results before the open on Nov. 6, led by adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion, up more than 50% from a year earlier. The company raised the midpoint and narrowed the range of its 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, and initiated 2027 guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion.

The market reaction was positive. Shares rose about 5% in premarket trading, and SentiSense data show the stock closed Nov. 6 at $124.80, up 10.6% on the session. Some headlines that mention a 25% decline are describing the stock's year-to-date performance, not a move on the earnings day, according to the Pluang report. The shares had been weak into the print, so the jump came from a lower base.

On the numbers, revenue of $6.35 billion came in below the $6.79 billion consensus cited by Investing.com, although it was well above the $4.97 billion reported a year earlier. Estimates vary by data provider: Investing.com put the EPS beat at $0.30, while MarketBeat put it at $0.27. The company's release does not state an EPS figure, so the size of the beat depends on which consensus is used. GAAP net income of $1.14 billion included a $559 million unrealized hedging gain, which flatters the comparison with $652 million a year earlier.

Capital allocation and growth also featured in the release. The board authorized an additional $1.5 billion of share repurchases, and Vistra closed its acquisition of Cogentrix Energy in October, adding approximately 5,500 megawatts of gas-fueled capacity for about $2.2 billion in cash. Investors may watch how the added capacity feeds the 2027 guidance range, how much of the earnings power depends on hedged prices, and whether the revenue shortfall against some forecasts proves a one-quarter timing issue. This is not investment advice.