Wall Street Bets on MSTR Q1 Earnings Amid Bitcoin Pause

Wall Street is closely watching Strategy Inc.'s (MSTR) Q1 2026 earnings, scheduled for release on May 5 after market close. The company holds 818,334 BTC valued at approximately $64.4 billion, with Q1 marking its second-largest quarterly Bitcoin purchase in company history — adding 89,600 BTC for roughly $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's recent price pause has added uncertainty ahead of the report.

Analysts expect a net loss of approximately $15.87 per share for Q1, with software revenue forecast at $124.97 million — a 12.5% increase year-over-year on the legacy software segment. Options markets are pricing an implied swing of ~8% for MSTR shares post-earnings, notably below the 11% average absolute move across the company's previous four quarterly reports, suggesting reduced short-term uncertainty.

The broader investment thesis for MSTR continues to hinge on Bitcoin's trajectory: with 818,334 BTC at an average cost basis of $75,532 per coin, the company sits at a modest unrealized gain at current prices. Consensus analyst price targets average $401, ranging from $212 (Cantor Fitzgerald) to $705 (Benchmark), reflecting divergent views on whether MSTR's Bitcoin accumulation strategy creates or destroys shareholder value.

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