Carnival posts record $8.44B Q3 revenue, beats forecasts and lifts outlook, sending stock up over 10%

CCL posted the best quarter in its history on Tuesday. Revenue for the three months ended August 31 rose 3.5% to $8.44 billion, topping the $8.39 billion consensus, and net income hit an all-time high of $1.9 billion. Adjusted EPS of $1.43 was flat with the prior year but beat the $1.35 estimate, and adjusted EBITDA of $3.0 billion edged past the $2.932 billion analysts expected. CEO Josh Weinstein credited "accelerating demand and even stronger cost discipline" for results that ran ahead of the company's own plan.

Pricing did the heavy lifting. Net yields, the cruise industry's measure of revenue per passenger day, rose 2.4% to a record, more than a point better than Carnival's guidance. Fuel was the drag: operating income slipped to $2.22 billion from $2.27 billion on higher fuel costs, and the company said gross margin yields fell 1.3% on higher fuel prices even as fuel consumption per berth day improved 3.8%, according to its earnings release.

The outlook moved up. Carnival raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.24 from $2.22, slightly above the $2.21 consensus, and said 2027 booked occupancy and pricing are already at record levels. The one soft spot is the fourth quarter: this was Carnival's first specific Q4 guide, calling for about $0.20 of adjusted EPS against a FactSet estimate of $0.24.

Investors looked past it. The stock rose about 12% in Tuesday trading, and the rally spread across the cruise group, with RCL also moving higher. By early afternoon our data showed CCL at $24.88, up 12.4%.

What to watch next: whether record 2027 bookings convert into another year of yield growth, how much of the fuel headwind persists into the seasonally weaker fourth quarter, and whether Carnival keeps directing cash toward balance-sheet repair. The release noted a record $7.6 billion in customer deposits and an S&P upgrade to investment grade, both signs the post-pandemic deleveraging is largely behind it.