Deutsche Bank Upgrades Netflix to Buy but Trims Target to $95 After a Roughly 25% Slide

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft upgraded Netflix (NFLX) to Buy from Hold on Tuesday, Sept 29, while trimming his price target to $95 from $100. The new target implies about 37% upside. Kraft argued the stock, which had fallen roughly 25% this year to around $70, now trades at about 18 times his 2027 earnings estimate, compared with about 40 times forward earnings at its June 2025 peak, and he sees room for the multiple to expand into the low-to-mid 20s on 23% EPS growth in 2027.

His case rests on engagement outside the U.S. Kraft wrote that the market overweights U.S. viewing time, while international engagement has risen in each of the last four six-month periods and more than 60% of Netflix's production now happens outside the U.S. He also described AI as "more friend than foe" for the company. The upgrade came with lower operating income and free cash flow estimates, which is why the target fell even as the rating rose. Jim Cramer separately called the stock too cheap to overlook at 18 times 2027 earnings, according to 24/7 Wall St..

Shares rose about 2% on the upgrade. Not everyone agrees: Wells Fargo holds an Underweight rating with a $57 target, citing declining viewership, and Investing.com's fair value model sits near $85. What to watch: engagement and ad-tier data in Netflix's next quarterly report and whether other brokers follow Deutsche Bank's view on international growth.